Predicting the First Visibility of the Lunar Crescent


Contents

Introduction

Seated in the right is Ur-Nammu, the first king of the Third Dynasty of Ur where a major centre of worship for the moon god Sin was located. Approaching from the left between two protective female deities is Hashhamer, governor of the city Ishkun-Sin. Impression from a Neo-Sumerian greenstone cylinder seal (c. 2100 BCE) from Babylon in the British Museum, London.
click for a larger image

Predicting the first visibility of the young lunar crescent for a given location is a problem that has challenged astronomers and mathematicians for more than four millennia. Already in the second half of the first millennium BCE Babylonian priest-astronomers developed sophisticated numerical algorithms for predicting the motion of the moon and the times of its synodic phases and the first visibility of the lunar crescent above the western horizon just after sunset.

In the past the dates of first lunar visibility were crucial parameters in regulating the religious and administrative calendars of many cultures. In the present time more than a billion Muslims around the world still eagerly await each year the first sighting of the lunar crescent which announces the begin and the end of Ramadān, the Islamic month of fasting and abstinence, or the lunar crescent which announces the begin of Dhū ’l-Hijja, the Islamic month of pilgrimage.

Global Lunar Crescent Visibility Maps based on the Yallop Algorithm

Progress in astronomy and in computing techniques has now made it possible to calculate the geocentric positions of the sun and the moon at any time with stunning precision but predicting when the thin sliver of the lunar crescent can first be seen in the sky from a given location after its conjunction with the sun still remains a difficult problem.

The main cause for this problem is the fact that the faint and narrow lunar crescent has to be detected shortly after sunset, when the moon is still close to the western horizon in the twilight sky. It is obvious that weather and the local transparency of the atmosphere are important factors for successfully detecting the lunar crescent, as well as the experience of the observer.

Numerous computational methods and algorithms for predicting the visibility of the lunar crescent have been proposed in the past (a comprehensive bibliography is given at the bottom of this webpage) but the method now most favoured by astronomers is based on the Yallop algorithm, proposed in 1997 by Bernard D. Yallop of the computing section of HM Nautical Almanac Office.

Yallop’s algorithm computes a lunar visibility test parameter q that is based on the geocentric difference in altitude (i.e. uncorrected for atmospheric refraction and parallax) between the centre of the sun and the centre of the moon at the ‘best time’ for a given observer and the topocentric width of the lunar crescent. From an analysis of nearly 300 observations (successful or not) of the lunar crescent, Yallop determined the following visibility criteria for the lunar crescent:

A   q > +0.216   easily visible to the naked eye
B   –0.014 < q < +0.216   visible to the naked eye under perfect atmospheric conditions
C   –0.160 < q < –0.014   may need optical aid to find the crescent before it can be seen with the naked eye
D   –0.232 < q < –0.160   can only be seen with binoculars or a (small) conventional telescope
E   –0.293 < q < –0.232   below the normal limit of detection with a (small) conventional telescope
F   q < –0.293   not visible with a (large) conventional telescope, below the Danjon limit (8°)

The ‘best time’ is here defined as the time of sunset increased by 4/9ths of the time interval between sunset and moonset. For instance, if the local times of sunset and moonset are at 18:00 and 19:30, then the ‘best time’ to search for the lunar crescent is around 18:40.

The global lunar crescent visibility maps on this webpage were generated from Yallop’s algorithm and indicate the local visibility of the lunar crescent at the begin of each lunar month from 2010 to 2019 (lunation numbers 1100 to 1207). For each month three world maps (in Mercator projection) are given indicating the visibility of the lunar crescent on the day of luni-solar conjunction (or astronomical new moon) and for the two following days.

As these world maps will also be useful for Muslims who wish to determine the astronomical begin of the months in the Islamic calendar, the visibility maps are grouped in yearly batches starting with the first month (Muharram) and ending with the last month (Dhū ’l-Hijja) of the Islamic lunar calendar.

Global Lunar Crescent Visibility Maps from 1432 AH to 1440 AH (2010 CE to 2019 CE)

Yearly batches of lunar crescent visibility diagrams for the Islamic years 1432 AH to 1440 AH (2010 CE to 2019 CE) can be downloaded as pdf files from the following table:

AH Lunation
Numbers
Muharram
New Moon
Dhū ’l-Hijja
New Moon
Download
1432 1100 - 1111 5 Dec 2010 26 Oct 2011 download pdf
1433 1112 - 1123 25 Nov 2011 15 Oct 2012 download pdf
1434 1124 - 1135 13 Nov 2012 5 Oct 2013 download pdf
1435 1136 - 1147 3 Nov 2013 24 Sep 2014 download pdf
1436 1148 - 1159 23 Oct 2014 13 Sep 2015 download pdf
1437 1160 - 1171 13 Oct 2015 1 Sep 2016 download pdf
1438 1172 - 1183 1 Oct 2016 21 Aug 2017 download pdf
1439 1184 - 1195 20 Sep 2017 11 Aug 2018 download pdf
1440 1196 - 1207 9 Sep 2018 1 Aug 2019 download pdf

Global Lunar Crescent Visibility Maps for Ramadān, Shawwāl and Dhū ’l-Hijja 1433 AH

The following world maps indicate the visibility of the young lunar crescent for the months Ramadān, Shawwāl and Dhū ’l-Hijja of the Islamic year 1433, which determine the begin and end of the annual period of fasting and the begin of the month of pilgrimage.

Global lunar crescent visibility maps for Ramadān 1433 AH
Day of conjunction
[19 July 2012]
Day after conjunction
[20 July 2012]
Second day after conjunction
[21 July 2012]
click to download pdf click to download pdf click to download pdf
 
Global lunar crescent visibility maps for Shawwāl 1433 AH
Day of conjunction
[17 August 2012]
Day after conjunction
[18 August 2012]
Second day after conjunction
[19 August 2012]
click to download pdf click to download pdf click to download pdf
 
Global lunar crescent visibility maps for Dhū ’l-Hijja 1433 AH
Day of conjunction
[15 October 2012]
Day after conjunction
[16 October 2012]
Second day after conjunction
[17 October 2012]
click to download pdf click to download pdf click to download pdf

Lunar Crescent Visibility during Muhammad’s Years in Medina

Visibility diagrams for the years when the prophet Muhammad resided in Medina can be obtained from the following table. These may be of use to historians and theologians who wish to study the chronology of early Islam.

AH Islamic
Lunation
Numbers
Muharram
New Moon
Dhū ’l-Hijja
New Moon
Download
0 –11 - 0 24 Jul 621 14 Jun 622 download pdf
1 1 - 12 14 Jul 622 3 Jun 623 download pdf
2 13 - 24 3 Jul 623 22 May 624 download pdf
3 25 - 36 21 Jun 624 12 May 625 download pdf
4 37 - 48 10 Jun 625 1 May 626 download pdf
5 49 - 60 31 May 626 21 Apr 627 download pdf
6 61 - 72 20 May 627 10 Apr 628 download pdf
7 73 - 84 9 May 628 30 Mar 629 download pdf
8 85 - 96 29 Apr 629 19 Mar 630 download pdf
9 97 - 108 18 Apr 630 8 Mar 631 download pdf
10 109 - 120 7 Apr 631 25 Feb 632 download pdf
11 121 - 132 26 Mar 632 14 Feb 633 download pdf

The months and years in these diagrams are denoted in the ‘proleptic’ Islamic lunar calendar, which assumes (as in the present-day Islamic calendar) that no intercalary months were inserted during the first decade of the Islamic calendar. However, before the ‘Farewell Pilgrimage’ (Dhū ’l-Hijja, 10 AH) when the intercalation of extra months in the Arabian calendar was abolished (Qur’ān, sūra 9:36-37), it was customary to add an extra month to the year every two or three years in order to keep the lunar calendar in step with the seasons.

As the intercalation scheme of the Arabian calendar is uncertain, all proposed reconstructions of the Islamic calendar before 10 AH can only be regarded as hypothetical. For this reason, Western calendar dates commonly cited for key events in early Islam such as the hijra, the Battle of Badr, the Battle of Uhud and the Battle of the Trench, should be viewed with caution as they can be in error by one, two or even three lunar months.

Websites on the Prediction of the Visibility of the Lunar Crescent

The image of the lunar crescent is often represented in Islamic art and is a standard feature (often combined with a star) on the national flag of many Islamic countries. Young lunar crescent with the planet Venus captured with a telephoto lens just after sunset on 17 January 1991 [= 2 Rajab 1411 AH] (© Wim Holwerda).
click for a larger image

Similar diagrams predicting the visibility of the young lunar crescent can also be obtained from the following websites:

Useful websites for determining the actual location of the moon (and other celestial objects) in the sky at any time from any terrestrial location:

Literature on Computing and Observing the First Visibility of the Lunar Crescent

I. Traditional Techniques for Computing the Visibility of the Lunar Crescent

II. Modern Techniques for Computing the Visibility of the Lunar Crescent and Observations of Young Lunar Crescents

Relevant Entries in The Encyclopaedia of Islam: New Edition (Leiden: E.J. Brill)


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