A.B.A. Slangen, 2012.
Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future.
PhD thesis. Utrecht University. ISBN 978-90-393-5868-9.
The contribution of sea level rise due to changes in the cryosphere is usually considered as an eustatic contribution. However, changes in the mass of ice lead to changes in the gravity field as well. Less mass leads to lower gravitational attraction and a relative sea-level drop near the ice loss. As a result strong regional variation of the sea-level rise do occur. In order to calculate this we need to couple cryospheric models to gravitationally consistent sea-level models. In this project we do this for a data set which forms a compilation of small glaciers. Forcing for the past and future contribution of small glaciers are the recent IPCC climate scenarios which form the basis of the estimated eustatic sea-level curves used by governmental agencies. Results of the model will be validated by satellite observations and result in regional predictions of sea-level rise with a focus on the contribution of small glaciers rather than the large ice sheets.
R. van de Wal (IMAU, Utrecht University) and B. Vermeersen (TU Delft).
Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios
Slangen, A.B.A., C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, L.L.A. Vermeersen and R.E.M. Riva
Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios.
These patterns reveal that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from −3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. Climate Dynamics, Accepted April 2011, Published March 2012.
Figure: Relative sea-level change anomaly for the A1B scenario by 2100.
An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change
Slangen, A.B.A. and R.S.W. van de Wal
A large part of present-day sea-level change is formed by the melt of glaciers and ice caps (GIC). This study focuses on the uncertainties in the calculation of the GIC contribution on a century timescale. The model used is based on volume-area scaling, combined with the mass balance sensitivity of the GIC. We assess different aspects that contribute to the uncertainty in the prediction of the contribution of GIC to future sea-level rise, such as (1) the volume-area scaling method (scaling factor), (2) the glacier data, (3) the climate models, and (4) the emission scenario. Additionally, a comparison of the model results to the 20th century GIC contribution is presented. The Cryosphere, August 2011.
Figure: GIC initial volume (Vi) and volume change (delta V) per region, SLE (m).